The CFO has asked for a forecast for the sales figures for the first quarter of 20X6.
The assistant management accountant has begun this work. Using moving averages, they calculated that the underlying trend as +$500 per quarter, but the last moving average the assistant calculated was for 20X5 Quarter 2: $261,500.
The assistant has also calculated that the seasonal adjustments for Q1 are either -$79,000 (using an additive model) or 0.70 (using a multiplicative model).
Forecast for 20X6 Qtr 1
The last moving average calculated was 20X5 Qtr 2, which is three periods ago.
So the underlying trend value for 20X6 Qtr 1 will be: $261,500 + (500 × 3) = $263,000.
We then have to adjust for the seasonal variation.
Additive: 263,000 – 79,000 = $184,000
Multiplicative: 263,000 * 0.70 = $184,100
However, as with any forecasts, care needs to be taken when using time series analysis, because it is based on the assumption that the past is a good indicator of what will happen in the future. In our simple example, we have assumed that the underlying sales revenue will continue to grow by $500 per quarter. However, changes in the external and competitive environment can create uncertainty, making forecasts based on past observations unrealistic.
Similarly, effective forecasting relies on the ability to identify genuine patterns and trends in the data. Therefore, analysts need to be able to identify the difference between random fluctuations or outliers and can separate them from underlying trends or seasonal variations.
Expected values
An important aspect of predictive analytics is that it doesn’t simply forecast possible future outcomes it also identifies the likelihood of those events happening.
The availability of information regarding the probabilities of potential outcomes allows the calculation of an expected value for the outcome.
The expected value indicates the expected financial outcome of a decision. It is calculated by multiplying the value associated with each potential outcome by its probability, and then summing the answers.
Expected values can be useful to evaluate alternative courses of action. When making a decision that could have multiple outcomes, a business should look at the value of each alternative and choose the one which has the most beneficial expected value (ie the highest expected value when looking at sales or income; or the lowest expected value when looking at costs).
WORKED EXAMPLE
Mewbix is launching a new cereal product in Deeland, a country with 10 million households.
Mewbix has already introduced the product in some test areas across the country, and - in conjunction with a marketing consultancy business – has been monitoring sales and market share. This data has been supplemented by survey-based tracking of consumer awareness, repeat purchase patterns, and customer satisfaction ratings.
Key findings from the test market and the subsequent customer research have indicated two feasible selling prices for Mewbix: $2.50 or $3.00 per packet. The market research has suggested that, for the coming year:
If the selling price is $2.50 per packet, 2% of the households in Deeland will buy Mewbix. Of these, 30% are expected to purchase 1 packet per week, 45% are expected to purchase 1 packet every 2 weeks, and 25% are expected to purchase 1 packet every 4 weeks.
If the selling price is $3.00 per packet, 1.5% of the households will buy Mewbix. Of these 25% are expected to purchase 1 packet per week, 50% are expected to purchase 1 packet every 2 weeks, and 25% are expected to purchase 1 packet every 4 weeks.
Based on the findings from the test market and the subsequent customer research, Mewbix’s CEO has asked for your advice about what price to sell the new cereal for, and how much revenue he should forecast for it in next year’s budget.
In order to give your advice, you need to forecast the revenue expected at each price: