The world’s largest quarterly survey of finance professionals shows that in Q3 2016, conditions in the global economy remain subdued despite a rise in key confidence indicators.
The GECS Q3 survey suggests that companies around the world are, so far, brushing off the effects of the UK’s vote to leave the EU. Our key confidence indicator rose for the second straight month and is now at its highest level since Q2 2015. That said, conditions in the global economy remain subdued: 37% of respondents are less confident about economic prospects, compared with only 25% who are more confident.
The biggest concern of companies in the third quarter was declining income, although the share of companies reporting this as a concern fell to 43% from 45% in the previous quarter.
The share of companies reporting concern about excessive exchange-rate movements, meanwhile, has dropped to 29% from 32%.
The recovery in confidence in Q3 was driven mainly by an improvement in the OECD economies, with confidence there at its highest since the second quarter of last year. Rising optimism that government spending would increase was a key factor behind this improvement. Confidence has also increased in non-OECD economies, with confidence in China now at its highest level since the start of 2012.